Introduction to Connecticut Slots Return-To-Player
Twenty out of fifty U.S. states offer slot machine return statistics, including Connecticut. Let’s examine the state of Connecticut slots return-to-player (RTP).
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An Overview of Connecticut’s Slots Industry
Connecticut’s two tribal casinos have tribal gaming agencies, including enforcement, as outlined in their tribal-state gaming compacts.
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Further, the state of Connecticut has its Gaming Division, which provides oversight of gaming activities at tribal casinos as well as regulates sports betting at all OTB locations.
Connecticut’s remaining state gaming control boards are the Charitable Games Section of the Gaming Division and the Connecticut Lottery Corporation.
Through their Mohegan Gaming and Entertainment venture, the Mohegan Tribe has expanded its gaming interests to international levels. In 2019, they won the contract to operate two casinos near Niagara Falls for the Ontario Province of Canada. Most recently, they have the Mohegan Sun Casino on the Las Vegas Strip.
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If completed and approved, Connecticut’s tribes will jointly operate a satellite casino proposed for East Windsor, not located on either’s tribal reservations.
Connecticut has two American Indian tribal casinos. The largest casino in Connecticut is Mohegan Sun. The second-largest casino is Foxwoods Resort Casino.
The Mohegan Sun and Foxwoods casinos compete, always striving to be better than the other. This ongoing competition is to the advantage of slots players as well as resulting in these two tribal casinos having a world-wide reputation.
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A proposed casino in East Windsor is a joint venture of the tribal owners and operators of Mohegan Sun and Foxwoods, called MMCT Venture. MGM has sought to block the casino project since 2015, essentially to protect its MGM Springfield casino in western Massachusetts as well as Connecticut’s MGM Bridgeport in southwest Connecticut. If the proposed MGM Bridgeport also opens, perhaps as early as 2022, it will become the second-largest casino in Connecticut.
Connecticut’s Theoretical Payouts for Slots
Theoretical payout limits have not been set in Connecticut’s tribal-state compacts with the tribes owning the Mohegan Sun and Foxwoods casinos.
Connecticut’s Return Statistics for Slots
However, monthly return statistics by casino are publicly available from the Connecticut Gaming Division, including both casino hold% and player win%.
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The Gaming Division has organized both new and archived return statistics into a state-run database which can be difficult to use. Connecticut’s recent monthly return statistics for the current calendar year are shown in their bar graph. Below that graph is detailed return statistical data by casino for the current calendar year.
Also available elsewhere from the Gaming Division is decades of archived return statistics. For Foxwoods casino, archived return statistics goes back to early 1993 when the casino originally opened. Similarly, Mohegan Sun’s archived return statistics from late 1996 is also available.
Connecticut’s Gaming Division offers monthly player win percentages and casino hold percentages for each tribal casino. However, these return statistics are not broken down by slot machine denominations. Only six of the twenty U.S. states offering return statistics offer them.
State-by-state return statistics demonstrate that slot machines are not entirely random. As we will see, tribal casinos in Connecticut deliberately choose how much of what slots enthusiasts bet is returned to players.
A well-known principle is statistics is that random behavior doesn’t allow for future prediction. What has happened in the past cannot be extrapolated into the future. But only when we have truly random data, which these return statistics plainly are not.
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For Connecticut return statistics, past results can be used to predict future results. Yeah!
Connecticut’s Win% by Tribal Casino
The return statistics for Connecticut’s tribal casinos go back to January 1993 for Foxwoods and October 1996 for Mohegan Sun. Before focusing on the last few years, I’ve plotted these returns since Mohegan Sun opened until January 2022.
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To help examine variations in this monthly return statistic, I’ll show the player win% between 91.0% and 93.5%.
But let’s reduce the return statistics being plotted to after 2019. Consider 2019 as a baseline, 2020 data as what happened during global pandemic, 2021 as a recovery period, and 2022 as the latest return statistics.
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And, for return statistics from both tribal casinos since the beginning of 2019, let’s reduce the range of win percentage so we can examine variations in return statistics during this period.
Analysis of Latest Return Statistics
Connecticut casinos got out of sync with each other twice since the beginning of 2019. First, Mohegan Sun win% dipped to just under 82% in July 2019. while Foxwoods did not.
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Most of the time, Mohegan Sun and Foxwoods move together. It’s interesting when they don’t. These tribal casinos are well-known competitors, so much so that, at one point Mohegan Sun drove Foxwoods to being the second-largest casino in the world.
Around when Mohegan Sun was at 82% win%, Foxwoods went up in win% and stayed there for the next four months. And in October 2020, Mohegan Sun and Foxwoods got out of sync, as Mohegan Sun noticeably increased its win% for three months.
How does this observation help you? It means that, most of the time, when you win at slots at Mohegan Sun you’d have had the same odds of winning at Foxwoods. That’s how they respond to each other, until they don’t perhaps once a year.
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Improve your slots play at Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun by keeping tracking the latest return statistics. When they are in sync, neither is the better casino at which to play slots. But when they diverge, they continue that path for next two to five month where which of these tribal casinos you choose matters, and perhaps matters a great deal.
Remember that a one percent change in win% is something you can feel while at the casino. To help understand, here’s my metaphor. A 2.5% increase in win% is worthy of celebration such that you’d consider performing a backflip even if attempting it might severely injure you. And a one percent increase is worthy of, say, a celebratory handstand.
Otherwise, it’s worth noting the last data point which represents January 2022. Both casinos’ win% went up together, jumping up half a percentage point. With two exceptions, including the first month after coming back from closing after the pandemic and whatever unusual thing was happening at Mohegan Sun in November 2020, January 2022’s returns were the best for these tribal casinos since the end of 2019.
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That’s a good indication for higher win percentages going into Spring 2022. If this holds true for the next few months, Connecticut slots enthusiasts, I look forward to your handstands. Enjoy!
Summary of Connecticut Slots Return-To-Player
Past behavior can predict future results when data isn’t entirely random. Looking at Connecticut slots return-to-player for both its tribal casinos Foxwoods and Mohegan Sun, we made a few predictions for 2022.
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